The report includes updated population estimates from 1950 to the present for 235 countries or areas, based on detailed analyses of all available information about the relevant historical demographic trends.
The world’s population is expected to increase by 2 billion persons in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050, according to a new United Nations report launched today. Disclaimer: This web site contains data tables, figures, maps, analyses and technical notes from the current revision of the World Population Prospects. Popular statistical tables, country (area) and regional profiles . Welcome to the United Nations. The cohort-component method was also used to project population trends until 2100 using a variety of demographic assumptions concerning the components of population change. These documents do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The potential support ratio, which compares numbers of persons at working ages to those over age 65, is falling around the world. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights, Office of Intergovernmental Support and Coordination for Sustainable Development, Division for Sustainable Development Goals, Division for Public Institutions and Digital Government, Financing for Sustainable Development Office, Division for Inclusive Social Development, Capacity Development Programme Management Office. By 2050, one in six people in the world will be over age 65 (16%), up from one in 11 in 2019 (9%). By 2050, one in four persons living in Europe and Northern America could be aged 65 or over. In 2019, life expectancy at birth in the least developed countries lags 7.4 years behind the global average, due largely to persistently high levels of child and maternal mortality, as well as violence, conflict and the continuing impact of the HIV epidemic. In total, the 2019 revision is based on information from: In addition to the national data sources described above, the 2019 revision has considered international estimates from the following sources: These data sources served to reconstruct population changes in each country or area from 1950 until the present. Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections With each successive revision of the World Population Prospects, the Population Division of the United Nations estimates historical demographic trends for the period from 1950 to the present and projects future population … In 2018, for the first time in history, persons aged 65 or above outnumbered children under five years of age globally. Regions where the share of the population aged 65 years or over is projected to double between 2019 and 2050 include Northern Africa and Western Asia, Central and Southern Asia, Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean.
The impact of low fertility on population size is reinforced in some locations by high rates of emigration. Falling proportion of working-age population is putting pressure on social protection systems. Around 2027, India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country. In addition, a number of projection variants were produced to convey the sensitivity of the medium-variant projection to changes in the underlying assumptions, and to explore the implications of alternative future scenarios of population change (see Definition of projection variants). World Population Prospects 2019 Prediction intervals reflect the spread in the distribution of outcomes across the projected trajectories and thus provide an assessment of the uncertainty inherent in the medium-variant projection. For further details, see also the report World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections. By 2050, 48 countries, mostly in Europe, Northern America, and Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, are expected to have potential support ratios below two.
“More than one third of the indicators approved for use as part of the global monitoring of the SDGs rely on data from World Population Prospects,” he added. The new population projections indicate that nine countries will make up more than half the projected growth of the global population between now and 2050: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States of America (in descending order of the expected increase). Life expectancy at birth for the world, which increased from 64.2 years in 1990 to 72.6 years in 2019, is expected to increase further to 77.1 years in 2050.
In the 2019 revision, the figures from 1950 through the period from mid-2015 to mid-2020 are treated as estimates, and thus the projections for each country or area begin on 1 July 2020 and extend until 2100. People in the poorest countries still live 7 years less than the global average. In China, for example, the population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2 per cent, between 2019 and 2050. Special Aggregates also provide additional groupings of countries. Since 2010, 27 countries or areas have experienced a reduction of one per cent or more in the size of their populations. Population data from all sources are evaluated for completeness, accuracy and consistency, and adjusted as necessary. Population, surface area and density; PDF | CSV Updated: 23-Jul-2019; International migrants and refugees Population. The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights, which is published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, provides a comprehensive overview of global demographic patterns and prospects. In Japan this ratio is 1.8, the lowest in the world. In most of sub-Saharan Africa, and in parts of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, recent reductions in fertility have caused the population at working ages (25-64 years) to grow faster than at other ages, creating an opportunity for accelerated economic growth thanks to a favourable population age distribution. Between 2010 and 2020, fourteen countries or areas will see a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while ten countries will see a net outflow of similar magnitude. ), Mr. Liu Zhenmin, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, said the report offers a roadmap indicating where to target action and interventions. The latest assessment uses the results of 1,690 national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2018, as well as information from vital registration systems and from 2,700 nationally representative sample surveys. With each successive revision of the World Population Prospects, the Population Division of the United Nations estimates historical demographic trends for the period from 1950 to the present and projects future population trends out to 2100. Migration has become a major component of population change in some countries. various other series of international estimates produced by international and regional organizations, and academic research institutions*. These low values underscore the potential impact of population ageing on the labour market and economic performance, as well as the fiscal pressures that many countries will face in the coming decades as they seek to build and maintain public systems of health care, pensions and social protection for older persons.
In 2019, fertility remains above 2.1 births per woman, on average, over a lifetime in sub-Saharan Africa (4.6), Oceania excluding Australia/New Zealand (3.4), Northern Africa and Western Asia (2.9), and Central and Southern Asia (2.4). * Including the Human Mortality Database and Human Life Table Database (UC Berkeley, MPIDR and INED), the Human Fertility Database and Human Fertility Collection (MPIDR and VID), the Latin American Mortality Database–LAMBdA (University of Wisconsin-Madison), the International Data Base (U.S. Census Bureau), the Global Burden of Disease project (IHME, University of Washington) and the Developing Countries Mortality Database–DCMD (Zhejiang University). In cases where data on the components of population change relative to the past 5 or 10 years are not available, estimated demographic trends are projections based on the most recent available data. Disclaimer: This web site contains data tables, figures, maps, analyses and technical notes from the current revision of the World Population Prospects.
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